Anticipating Geopolitical Events on Flux

Community Team
November 11, 2020

Geopolitical Forecasting for the 21st Century

Flux Protocol is an Open-Market Platform launching on the NEAR Blockchain. As one of the most exciting projects developing at the intersection of Open-Finance and Cryptocurrency, Flux offers developers, entrepreneurs, analysts, and financial experts a scalable platform for asking questions about the future. Beyond futures markets, real-time betting on sporting events, or innovative financial-reward mechanisms, Flux accommodates an increasingly important niche in prediction markets: Geopolitical Forecasting and Superforecasting for the 21st century. 

Superforecasting Geopolitical Events: What Is It, and Why Does It Matter? 

Superforecasting, originally written by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, examines the art and science of predicting future events. In the context of this emerging industry, Tetlock and Gardner delve into the world of intelligence, macroeconomic analysts, and global business development specialists to illustrate the importance and value that different stakeholders place on having foresight on the geopolitical landscape and possible future events that could take place: 

  • “In the next year, will any country withdraw from the Eurozone?” 
  • “Will the Kurdistan Regional Government hold a referendum on national independence this year?” 
  • Will India or Brazil become a permanent member of the UN Security Council in the next two years? 
  • Will the United States stock market crash by 2021? 
  • Will Canada go into a housing recession by 2022? 

As interest from across industries illustrates, in an interconnected, fast-paced, and increasingly global world of communication, trade, and conflict, having accurate insight into both major and minor geopolitical events is becoming essential. Not only are governments keen to prepare for a world of change, resource scarcity and conflict, but large businesses, financial managers, and academics increasingly rely on such foresight to plan and budget for their futures. 

Most notably, what research on predicting global geopolitical events has demonstrated is that group consensus matters: Creating spaces where trained forecasters can share judgements, make predictions, and place value on the importance of particular questions has a significant impact on the accuracy of forecasts, and the planning resulting thereof. 

It is from this need, that the world of superforecasting and future geopolitical events, directly intersects with distributed ledgers, and more specifically, Open-Market Protocols like Flux.  

Flux Protocol: A Home for Superforecasting Geopolitical Events In The 21st Century

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), is the most important general purpose technology since the invention of the steam engine in the first industrial revolution. In the context of superforecasting geopolitical events in an increasingly turbulent world, open-source protocols offer decentralized and open-access to services and markets in a secure, scalable and anonymous manner. 

Flux Protocol, a pioneer of Open-Markets and the future of forecasting, is built on the NEAR Blockchain to allow any developer, entrepreneur, analyst or superforecaster to (1) Create a market on any future event, (2) Share that market with others, and ultimately (3) Place value on the outcome of the question being asked using real currency.

For better understanding future geopolitical events, Flux is a unique technological solution for many of the most involved stakeholders:

  • Anonymous Participation: With anonymity any entity, agency, or firm can start a market on any question about a future event. This incentivizes participation from traditionally classified or isolated agencies, normally operating outside of the public sphere. 
  • Crowd-Sourced Insights and Discussion: For the first time, groups of people interested in future events in the world can collaborate with one another in an open-source and permissionless environment: To share information, debate predictions, and look at events from different perspectives. The wisdom of the crowds becomes reality. 
  • Build On Top: For companies looking to create their own solutions, Flux’s Oracle and Open-Source SDK’s allow for any developer or entrepreneur to use Flux for their own needs - effectively leveraging the public nature of the protocol for private purposes. 
  • Interoperable Across Software and Blockchains: Built on the NEAR blockchain, Flux is interoperable with Ethereum as well as any solution built onto a NEAR or Flux SDK. As such, in the future legacy softwares can plug into Flux protocol to integrate probabilities and open markets on geopolitical events into their own IT systems. 

Predicting future geopolitical events - from the next pandemic, to the next global conflict, to the next civil war or coup d’etat - is now technologically viable on Flux Protocol, for the first time. Equality of access in predicting such events, means that anyone - from any place in the world - and of any age - has the opportunity to put forward their perspective (including the reasons why!) on the likelihood of something happening. 

Beyond the market-reward dynamics built into the protocol itself, the magnitude of crowd-sourced information has the opportunity to  provide new thresholds of insight into pressing, highly valued, and even world-changing geopolitical forecasts. From Banks, to Intelligence Agencies, to entrepreneurs, to students predicting from their dorm room, the open and inclusive nature of Flux creates a new environment for engaging with the future: Speculation is eating the world, and Flux has arrived to organize and evaluate different perspectives.